Foodservice Industry Preparedness and Response Planning
All businesses will benefit from pandemic business continuity planning, but restaurant businesses in particular need to be prepared because they would be amongst the most vulnerable during a flu pandemic. Foodservice companies have a responsibility to their employees, customers and shareholders to be properly prepared in order to reduce the human cost and maintain business viability during and after a pandemic. Foodservice operators must be aware of the risks and factor them into their strategic planning.
The Public Health Agency of Canada has provided the following assumptions regarding the health impacts of a pandemic to be considered in preparedness and response planning:
- The majority of the population (over 70%) will be infected over the course of the pandemic
- 15% - 35% will be clinically ill
- up to 50% will seek outpatient care
- assume that the majority of cases occur in the first wave (e.g. for a clinical attack rate of 35%, plan for 25% illness rate over six weeks in the first wave
- up to 50% will seek outpatient care
-
6% pneumonia“Foodservice businesses would be amongst the most vulnerable during a flu pandemic”
- 1% hospitalized (10% in severe pandemic)
- 0.6% fatality rate (2.2% in 1918)
If the severity of the pandemic is moderate but no vaccines or antivirals are available, the PHAC predicts a cost to the health care system of $440 million to $1.4 billion with:
- 11,000 to 58,000 deaths
- 34,000 to 138,0000 hospitalizations
- 2 to 5 million outpatients
While the timing and impact of the next pandemic is unknown the PHAC indicates that a workplace may expect:
- Staff absenteeism occurring over a six- to eight-week pandemic wave in any given area
- 35% absenteeism during peak weeks of a severe pandemic (recently updated this assumption to 17-20% absenteeism)
- Possible regional differences in the timing of peak pandemic activity
- That an effective vaccine will take six months to produce
- That the effectiveness of antivirals such as Tamiflu may be limited
Hits on the economy won't likely come from the illness itself but will arise as a result of worker and customer efforts to avoid infection by minimizing face-to-face interactions, according to a World Bank economist. (1)
While most businesses must develop plans that will allow them to continue to operate with huge employee shortages, restaurants must focus on the likelihood of huge customer shortages. Some restaurateurs will see their business evaporate overnight. Foodservice operators who are the most creative in developing plans that allow them to get food to consumers or alternatively allow them to access emergency financing and insurance, will be best positioned to weather a pandemic.
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Public health officials will advise the public to avoid crowded situations and stay at home as much as possible. They will not hesitate to impose quarantines, including requiring people who may have been exposed to the virus to stay home. They may also mandate closures of public places and events. Regional Medical Officers of Health will have the authority to close facilities and events in the interest of public safety. This could include transportation, childcare centres and schools, retail settings, workplaces, places of worship, community events, sporting events, concerts, parades, etc.
Foodservice industry plans should take into consideration shifts in consumer demand. While demand for take-out and delivery service will likely increase dramatically, some full service restaurants will have difficulty remaining open. Foodservice industry plans must consider financing and insurance to stay afloat during restaurant shut down and must also consider employee income support needs, food supply disruptions and product and fuel shortages.
1. Milan Brahmbhatt, the World Bank’s East Asia and the Pacific Economist, Canadian Press, November 2005